Analysts trim 5G phone adoption targets for India

Industry analysts are revising previous estimates on how fast 5G phone adoption will grow in India even as telcos remain gung-ho about 5G rollouts. While data from the International Data Corporation says that companies have shipped 67 million 5G smartphones in India so far, analysts said that India is expected to ship 80 million 5G smartphones by the end of the year, which is lower than the earlier predicted 90 to 100 million mark. 

They attributed this to several factors, including growing inflation, a drop in demand for smartphones, the fact that 5G phones are more expensive, and the fact that consumers have realized that 5G doesn’t make immediate and noticeable differences in their smartphone experiences.

“The target might fall short. By the end of the year, the share of 5G smartphone shipments is expected to reach 80 million. This is primarily due to the lack of sub-15k smartphones,” said Navkendar Singh, Associate Vice President, Devices Research, IDC India, South Asia, and ANZ. “Brands have also failed to bring 5G smartphones at lower price points as supply chain costs are still high due to inflation,” he added. 

Though the average selling price (ASP) of smartphones has dropped from $509 in Q1 2020 to $393 in Q3 2022, it remains high in a market such as India where the ASP is $226.

“For mass market adoption, the ASP should be closer to $200. There is still a lot of time for 5G phones to reach that level. It might happen sometime after next year,” said Tarun Pathak, research director, Counterpoint Research. 

Pathak pointed out that 15 million 5G smartphones are being added on average every quarter. “It may take 6 to 7 months for the shipments to reach 100 million.”

Faisal Kawoosa, founder and chief analyst at techARC concurred. “The conditions are not that great globally. The supply chain has not become that effective which will allow OEMs to economize. OEMs are also realizing that it is better to be in a highly profitable zone,” added Kawoosa. 

According to a September report by techARC, the true 5G years are yet to come in India. It will be marked with the introduction of mass volumes in the price range of ₹10,000-20,000.

To be sure, analysts also said that demand for smartphones in India always drops after the festive season. In Q3, the overall smartphone market declined 10% YoY. Further decline in demand will also impact the estimated 5G shipments.

“The market is expected to go down after Diwali. The market in Q1 2023 will also remain slow. It will start picking up again from Q2 2023,” said Pathak.