Semiconductors to see 13.6% growth in 2022 led by memory and 5G: Gartner

During the pandemic, growth of e-mobility, surge in electronic devices sales, aggressive migration from 4G to 5G from major smartphone chipset vendors and a host of other factors had led to a semiconductor chip shortage over the past two years.

Gartner, however, predicts the overall semiconductor component supply constrains to gradually ease through 2022 and prices to stabilise. In a recent report, the company predicts the worldwide semiconductor revenues to grow by 13.6% and touch $676 billion, up from $595 billion in 2021. 

“The semiconductor average selling price (ASP) hike from the chip shortage continues to be a key driver for growth in the global semiconductor market in 2022, but prices will stabilise with the improving inventory situation,” said Alan Priestley, research vice president at Gartner. 

In 2023, Gartner predicts revenues to grow by a modest 3.6% and hit $700 billion. 

For the current fiscal, however, automotive applications will continue to experience component supply constraints, specifically in the areas of microcontrollers (MCUs), power management integrated circuits (PMICs) and voltage regulators, and this constraint will extend into 2023.

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Gartner said that slowing growth in PCs, smartphones and server end markets will also slow down semiconductor revenues, but the supply and demand will gradually come into balance in 2022. 

However, the company warned that chip shortages will be a concern for the automotive supply chain through late 2022. 

“Although unit production of automotive vehicles will grow below expectation at 12.5% in 2022, semiconductor device ASPs are expected to remain high due to continued tight supply driving the automotive semiconductor market to double-digit growth (19%) in 2022,” said Priestley. 

But what will spur semiconductor growth? The memory devices market will account for 31.4% of the overall semiconductor revenues for 2022, with the NAND semiconductor chips expected to be in oversupply in the fourth quarter of 2022. On the other hand, the dynamic random access memory chip market, or DRAM, will move into oversupply in the second half of 2023, according to Gartner. 

In terms of how new technologies will spur growth, the increase in 5G smartphone production will increase by 45.3% in 2022, and will touch 808 million units, accounting for 55% of all smartphones manufactured, Gartner said. 

“Aggressive migration from 4G to 5G from major smartphone chipset vendors has temporarily led to a shortage in 4G system-on-chip. Rising 5G-integrated inventory will result in declining prices for 5G smartphones,” Gartner predicts.